WS #14128

The dominant Iran-US/Hormuz narrative remains in an escalation phase with no counter-signals. Iran's Deputy FM reiterated that the Strait of Hormuz will only open under Iran's command, directly rejecting Trump's declaration of US territory. The IRGC reportedly shot down a US-made MQ-9 drone over Hormozgan province, and the UAE accused Iran of a third attack on an ADNOC vessel in the strait. Hormuz traffic is down ~80% from pre-war levels, and an empty LPG tanker paid a record $4.6 million to jump the Panama Canal queue, highlighting severe shipping disruptions. Asian refiners are pivoting to US oil, and gold/silver are seeing safe-haven inflows. These developments are consistent with the prevailing escalation thesis and reinforce bullish energy and bearish airline/shipping positions.