WS #14157

The US-Iran/Hormuz conflict remains in an escalation phase, with Iran's deputy foreign minister reaffirming that the Strait of Hormuz 'will remain Iranian' and will only be closed or opened under Iran's command, directly countering Trump's threat to declare it US territory. This is corroborated by multiple sources (CNA, GDELT, APA). The IEA's revised oil supply deficit forecast of 1.8 million barrels per day for Q3, more than double its previous estimate, and the expectation of a 4.3M bbl/day supply fall this year, underscores a tightening oil market. Brent closed at $88.52. The conflict shows no signs of de-escalation, with Bloomberg reporting that neither side can achieve a decisive victory, and the possibility of repeated Hormuz closures. This continues to support bullish energy prices and bearish airlines/shipping, while pressuring consumer discretionary and indices. No counter-signals or de-escalation have emerged in this window.