WS #14184

The dominant theme remains the US-Iran/Hormuz conflict, which is in a STABLE-to-ESCALATING phase with no new material data points beyond reiteration of existing positions. Iran's deputy foreign minister reaffirmed that the Strait 'will remain Iranian' and will only open under Iran's command, while Trump reiterated his intention to declare it US territory (dismissed as a joke by a White House official). The blockade continues to throttle oil traffic, with Brent briefly above $90/barrel, and Iraq's oil exports recovering to 2 million bpd (highest since the war began) but still half of pre-war levels. The AI-driven bond yield surge is the most significant market-moving development: US 30-year real yields near 18-year highs (~3%), with Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta having issued ~$220B of bonds YTD (more than double 2025's total), pushing nominal yields higher and raising risks for equity markets. This corroborates the prior carry-forward on AI-driven bond issuance and real yields. Separately, Berkshire Hathaway's Q2 13F reveals a massive 48M-share purchase of Alphabet, elevating it to the third-largest holding, while trimming Bank of America and exiting Constellation Brands—a notable bullish signal for GOOGL. In the AI hardware space, Microsoft is reportedly planning to scale its Maia 300 chip to 300,000+ units by 2027, intensifying competition with Nvidia and pressuring NVDA's dominance. Also, Workday shares surged ~18% on reports that Silver Lake is in talks for a potential acquisition, a major software buyout. On the geopolitical front, Ukraine's largest drone attack on Russia (600 drones toward Moscow, hitting Wildberries logistics centers and a missile fuel facility) and Russia's fuel sales limits carry forward, with new details on the scale of the attack. The Hormuz narrative remains stable with no new data points; Iran reiterates blockade control and Trump's territory talk is dismissed as a joke by a White House official, which slightly de-escalates the rhetoric but does not change the underlying blockade status.