WS #14186

The dominant narrative remains the US-Iran conflict and its impact on oil prices, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade continuing to escalate. Trump's declaration of the strait as US territory and Iran's rejection, coupled with the 60-day ceasefire deadline expiring Monday, are keeping geopolitical risk elevated. Oil prices are hovering around $87 Brent, with US gas prices up 29% year-over-year, pressuring consumers and complicating central bank inflation decisions. The AI-driven bond yield surge narrative persists, with Goldman Sachs warning of an 'earnings bubble' in tech despite no valuation bubble, and Microsoft's Maia 300 chip plans targeting NVIDIA's dominance. These themes are stable-to-escalating, with no counter-signals observed. Other developments include Nvidia's potential $3B investment in SB Energy for OpenAI data centers, Apple's blocked purchase of Chinese memory chips, and a major Ukrainian drone attack on Russia, which could have second-order effects on energy and defense sectors.