WS #14236
The US-Iran/Hormuz crisis remains the dominant market narrative and is ESCALATING. The 60-day US-Iran MoU expired on August 17 with no deal, and Iran's top negotiator Qalibaf declared victory, while the US prepares fresh sanctions and Israel strikes Lebanon. Oil prices hold near $88.7 Brent / $82.2 WTI, with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz sharply reduced (zero vessels on Sunday per Kpler), and the Oman spill cleanup estimated at $200-500M. This continues to support energy names (XOM, CVX) and pressure airlines (DAL, UAL) and shipping (MATX, ZIM). A counter-signal emerged: reports of Gulf states secretly shipping fuel with transponders off and the US Energy Secretary claiming the strait is 'open', but this is contradicted by Kpler data showing near-zero traffic. The situation remains highly volatile with no de-escalation in sight.
Topics
Key developments
- US-Iran 60-day MoU expires with no deal; Iran declares victory, US prepares fresh sanctions
- Hormuz shipping traffic collapses to zero on Sunday per Kpler; Oman spill cleanup estimated at $200-500M
- Anthropic Q2 revenue surges to $11.5B, 2028 forecast $190-200B ahead of mega-IPO
- Apple trains China-specific AI model with Alibaba's help, first foreign company to get CAC approval
- Major hedge funds (Thiel, Druckenmiller, Bridgewater) boost Amazon positions; Berkshire exits
- Japan Q2 GDP misses at 1.1% annualized; JGB yield hits three-decade high near 3%
- US inflation cools; Fed September hike odds drop to 30%; S&P 500 tops 7,800