WS #14278

The dominant theme remains Middle East escalation, with the US-Iran 60-day truce expiring today and Trump threatening to bomb Oman if it interferes in Hormuz talks. This is corroborated across NBC, GDELT, and multiple international sources, with Brent crude surging past $91 (+2.6-3%) and WTI up ~2.4% to $84.37, while gold rises to $4,476 and the 30-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high of 5.31%. The escalation is stable-to-escalating, with no counter-signals; Polymarket shows active trading on Hormuz traffic normalization and Iranian blockade end dates, indicating market uncertainty. The AI infrastructure trade remains strong: Anthropic's revenue run rate surpassing $65B (Q2 revenue $11.5B, 14x YoY) is corroborated by Bloomberg, Seeking Alpha, and Investing.com, driving chip stocks like Marvell, Applied Materials, and MACOM higher. Nvidia's $105B guarantee for OpenAI's Ohio data center and $1.5B SB Energy investment is confirmed via 8-K and multiple outlets, reinforcing the AI capex thesis. However, a counter-signal emerges: Microsoft is internally rationing AI tokens for GitHub Copilot, suggesting even hyperscalers are managing AI costs, which could temper the AI rally narrative. Additionally, the US and Canada are discussing reducing auto tariffs from 25% to 15%, a potential de-escalation in trade tensions that could benefit automakers. Fabrinet's strong Q4 earnings (EPS $4.10 beat, revenue $1.316B beat) and upbeat Q1 guidance add to the positive AI supply chain signal.