WS #14297

The US-Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with the 60-day MOU having expired without extension and Iran shifting to a 'fully offensive' posture. A vessel was struck by a projectile in the Strait of Hormuz overnight, causing engine room damage and a crew casualty, adding to the risk premium on oil. Brent crude is above $91, and US stocks fell on Monday with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, while the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.72%. Trump's threat to bomb Oman and his claim of US control over the strait further escalate tensions. This is corroborated across multiple sources including Reuters, AP, and GDELT. The market impact is clear: energy names (XOM, CVX) bullish, airlines (DAL, UAL) bearish, and broader indices under pressure. Additionally, BHP reported a 30% jump in underlying profit driven by copper, with copper overtaking iron ore as the primary profit driver, signaling continued demand from AI data centers and energy transition. Berkshire Hathaway increased its Alphabet stake by 83% to $38 billion, a notable MAG7 signal. Nvidia's Spectrum-X switches entered mass production and the Vera Rubin chip is ahead of schedule, supporting semiconductor momentum. Bitcoin is overdue for a 30% move per Fundstrat, with recent short-covering rally. The Philippines school shooting is a tragic but non-market event. The Iran situation is the primary driver.