WS #15428

Geopolitical risk is escalating sharply as Iranian pressure on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies, driving Brent crude above $101 a barrel and triggering a $403 million liquidation cascade in Bitcoin as it slides below $84,000. This energy shock is creating a bifurcated market: energy beneficiaries like Shell are seeing profit forecasts double, while airlines and shipping face severe margin compression. Concurrently, the Reserve Bank of India has hiked rates to 5.50%, the first increase since 2023, citing inflationary pressures from the Iran conflict, which reinforces the macro narrative of sticky, geopolitically-driven inflation. In the technology sector, a massive $40 billion commitment from SpaceX to Nvidia for next-generation AI chips underscores the insatiable demand for compute, though Ray Dalio’s warning that the AI bubble is 'close to bursting' due to debt and rising rates introduces a conflicting sentiment. Meanwhile, supply chain constraints are tightening as Apple reportedly drops 16GB RAM plans for the iPhone 18 due to soaring memory costs, and Toshiba storage fears are pressuring Micron and SK Hynix. These developments highlight a divergence between the bullish AI infrastructure thesis and bearish consumer hardware margin pressures.