WS #15568
Ukrainian forces have launched a massive drone attack on the Ukhta oil refinery in the Komi Republic, pushing total Russian refining capacity losses to 51%. Simultaneously, Strait of Hormuz traffic has plunged 27% following Iranian attacks, tightening global oil supply chains. While these physical disruptions are severe, the immediate risk of a broader US-Iran military conflict has been dampened by President Trump's pledge not to strike Iran before the midterm elections, limiting the geopolitical premium on energy prices.
Energy Supply Shock and Geopolitics
Ukrainian forces have launched a massive drone attack on the Ukhta oil refinery in the Komi Republic, pushing total Russian refining capacity losses to 51%. Simultaneously, Strait of Hormuz traffic has plunged 27% following Iranian attacks, tightening global oil supply chains. While these physical disruptions are severe, the immediate risk of a broader US-Iran military conflict has been dampened by President Trump's pledge not to strike Iran before the midterm elections, limiting the geopolitical premium on energy prices.