WS #15603

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have escalated sharply, marked by the IRGC targeting an LPG tanker and the US deploying a third aircraft carrier toward Iran. This escalation is countering previous fears of a supply shock as oil prices have actually fallen, likely due to the market pricing in a potential resolution or the US military's overwhelming deterrent effect. Concurrently, Houthi attacks on Riyadh's airport and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries indicate a broadening of kinetic conflict, though the direct US-Iran carrier deployment suggests a focus on coercion rather than immediate large-scale war.