WS #15830
Ray Dalio has warned that the US debt market faces a 'death spiral' as $2.1 trillion in new Treasury supply hits the market, overwhelming demand and spiking yields despite government buybacks. This narrative is gaining traction as Treasury yields inch lower ahead of the key CPI inflation report, suggesting investors are pricing in both inflation risk and debt sustainability concerns. This macro backdrop is bearish for high-multiple growth stocks and REITs, while potentially benefiting financials if yields rise sustainably. The UK Office for National Statistics has released GDP revisions and admin-based income statistics for the tax year ending 2024. These data points provide insight into the UK's economic trajectory but are routine releases with limited immediate market-moving potential unless they significantly deviate from expectations. The revisions are likely to have a neutral impact on UK gilts and the pound unless they signal a major shift in growth or inflation dynamics.
US Debt Supply & Macro Inflation Anxiety
Ray Dalio has warned that the US debt market faces a 'death spiral' as $2.1 trillion in new Treasury supply hits the market, overwhelming demand and spiking yields despite government buybacks. This narrative is gaining traction as Treasury yields inch lower ahead of the key CPI inflation report, suggesting investors are pricing in both inflation risk and debt sustainability concerns. This macro backdrop is bearish for high-multiple growth stocks and REITs, while potentially benefiting financials if yields rise sustainably.
The UK Office for National Statistics has released GDP revisions and admin-based income statistics for the tax year ending 2024. These data points provide insight into the UK's economic trajectory but are routine releases with limited immediate market-moving potential unless they significantly deviate from expectations. The revisions are likely to have a neutral impact on UK gilts and the pound unless they signal a major shift in growth or inflation dynamics.