WS #1820

The dominant signal in this data window is the escalating geopolitical crisis in the Middle East, with significant market-moving developments. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, in a Fox Business Network interview, indicated the U.S. may unsanction about 130-140 million barrels of Iranian oil on water in coming days and could execute another Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) release to keep prices down, directly offsetting bullish pressure from supply disruptions. Concurrently, U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth announced that today will see the largest strike package on Iran, with reports of over 120 Iranian military ships damaged or sunk and 11 submarines gone, indicating intensified military action. This cross-source corroboration from jetstream.bsky.priority and pro-wire highlights both supply-side interventions and escalating conflict, creating mixed signals for oil prices and broader market risk. Corporate activity shows a significant bullish development for Rivian and Uber, with multiple sources confirming Uber's investment of up to $1.25 billion in Rivian through 2031 to deploy up to 50,000 autonomous robotaxis, driving RIVN shares higher. This is reinforced by analyst actions, including Needham reiterating Buy on Globant and N-able, and Baird raising Jabil's price target to $281, providing targeted positive signals in technology and manufacturing sectors. However, broader market indices show weakness, with S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 futures extending losses to session lows, reflecting geopolitical uncertainty. Monetary policy developments include the Bank of England holding interest rates at 3.75% but warning of inflation risks from the Iran war, with traders now fully pricing in 50bps of hikes in 2026 and UK two-year yields rising 27bps. This signals heightened inflation expectations due to energy price shocks, potentially impacting global bond markets and central bank policies. Additionally, spot gold dropped 4% to $4,626.79/oz, indicating a shift in safe-haven flows amid the mixed geopolitical and policy signals. Other notable signals include Iran effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of transit fees up to $2M per vessel, threatening global supply chains and critical mineral inputs for defense industries. This aligns with previous warnings about strangleholds on U.S. defense sectors, sustaining broader economic risks. The data also includes specific earnings misses and beats, such as Taysha Gene Therapies' Q4 EPS miss and Tejon Ranch's Q4 beat, but these are isolated events with limited market-wide impact compared to the geopolitical and policy developments.