WS #1845

The Middle East conflict remains the dominant market-moving signal, with escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz driving energy supply concerns and potential military intervention. Multiple sources corroborate that the U.S. is considering sending thousands of additional troops to secure the Strait or conduct limited operations inside Iran, with Israel indicating a two-week operation is expected. This escalation follows Iran's closure of the Strait and attacks on oil facilities, which have pushed crude oil prices above $100 and strained Asian energy supplies, as highlighted by Polymarket's question on crude hitting $100 by end of March. Oxford Economics warns that nearly 28 million outbound trips from the Middle East are at risk this year due to the Iran war, with European tourism sectors particularly exposed, adding to economic uncertainty. In corporate news, Micron Technology continues to receive bullish analyst support, with Wells Fargo raising its price target to $550 and RBC Capital reiterating an Outperform rating and $525 target, reinforcing positive sentiment for MU. Conversely, SailPoint faces bearish pressure after below-estimate guidance led to analyst price target cuts, with Wells Fargo lowering its target to $16. Alibaba's shares plunged 7% after posting a 66% profit drop, despite aiming for $100 billion in cloud and AI revenue over five years, indicating near-term challenges for BABA. Regulatory developments include the Fed unveiling plans to ease capital rules for big banks, with US regulators proposing a 4.8% cut in Wall Street capital requirements, which could boost financial stocks like JPM and GS. The ECB's increased attentiveness to risks, as noted by Lagarde, and the Bank of England's rate uncertainty add to broader market caution, while Polymarket traders now see no Fed rate cuts in 2026 as the likeliest scenario, with odds at 33.3%, signaling a hawkish shift.