WS #1928

The Iran-Israel conflict continues to escalate with significant market-moving developments. Oil prices surged to $119 after Iran struck a Qatar LNG hub, exacerbating the Strait of Hormuz crisis and causing global markets to fall, as reported by multiple sources including Bloomberg noting bond markets hit by the oil shock. This is compounded by reports of a second F-35 fighter jet being shot down by Iran, following earlier CENTCOM actions, indicating heightened military tensions that could further disrupt energy supplies and drive volatility in oil-related sectors. Additionally, Iran's IRGC debuted a multi-warhead 'Nasrallah' missile targeting Israel's oil refineries, adding to the bearish pressure on energy markets and broader indices like SPY and QQQ due to supply chain risks. Counter-signals are emerging that could stabilize the situation, with six U.S. allies expressing readiness to ensure safe passage in the Strait of Hormuz, and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stating Israel will help the U.S. reopen the strait, causing oil prices to give up gains. However, operational challenges persist, such as GPS jamming near the strait hampering shipping, and the EU's refusal to send ships immediately, indicating mixed sentiment. In corporate developments, a large dark pool order for NVDA (1.4M shares, $250M) suggests institutional bullish activity in tech, while TSMC's decision not to adopt high-NA EUV for A16 or A14 negatively impacts ASML, introducing bearish sentiment in semiconductors. Overall, the conflict escalation and allied responses are likely to drive near-term volatility, with specific tickers like XLE, NVDA, and ASML showing sector-specific movements.