WS #2410

The data dump reveals escalating tensions in the Iran war, with significant market-moving developments. Iranian drones have struck Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi oil refinery for a second day, causing fires and partial shutdowns, directly impacting oil supply and corroborating earlier reports of attacks on regional energy infrastructure. This is compounded by a report that the U.S. and Israel are preparing for a significant expansion of the war, with Trump intending to take control of the Strait of Hormuz in a weeks-long operation, according to Israeli sources—a high-stakes geopolitical move that could further disrupt oil flows. Concurrently, 22 countries have now signed a joint statement condemning Iran's attacks and expressing readiness to ensure safe passage through the Strait, indicating potential international intervention that might stabilize shipping lanes. These events are driving oil prices up, with oil noted at $98.23 (+2.17%), and Canadian oil producers are positioned to capture gains from the geopolitical risk premium. In contrast, gold ETFs are experiencing significant outflows, with $GLD seeing record outflows of $6.3 billion in March, suggesting a shift away from safe-haven assets amid the crisis. Global equity indices are broadly down, with SPX at 6,506.48 (-1.78%) and DAX at 22,380.19 (-4.77%), reflecting market stress from the geopolitical turmoil. Repeated mentions of Trump's psychological stress and instability add to policy uncertainty, though this is more noise than direct market signal. The death of Robert Mueller and Pentagon press restrictions are noted but lack immediate market impact.