WS #2955

The Middle East energy crisis has escalated further, with new data confirming severe market impacts and emerging geopolitical counter-signals. South Korea's KOSPI plunged 18% in two days and the won weakened to 1,500 per dollar due to oil-LNG shocks from Israel-US strikes on Iran, corroborating earlier QatarEnergy force majeure reports and indicating the crisis is intensifying beyond initial projections. Concurrently, Iran has offered a pathway for non-hostile vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, a development that counters the worst-case supply disruption fears and could dampen energy price spikes. Gold futures surged above $4,550/oz (+4%) on growing optimism over US-Iran peace talks, with the Trump administration offering a 15-point ceasefire plan even as it prepares to deploy 1,000 more troops—creating a mixed but potentially de-escalatory signal. In technology, SK Hynix announced HBM3E remains dominant with HBM4 shipments ramping in H2 2026, a bullish signal for memory suppliers like NVDA, while Meta faces renewed legal pressure with a $375 million penalty for endangering young users, confirming earlier regulatory risks. The Dominican Republic has allocated RD$15 billion to mitigate Middle East crisis impacts, highlighting broader economic stabilization efforts. Overall, the energy shock is escalating but tempered by diplomatic maneuvers, with high volatility in Asian markets and semiconductor optimism providing cross-currents.