WS #3009

The data dump reveals a critical escalation in the US-Iran-Israel conflict with immediate market-moving implications. President Trump claims negotiations are underway with Iran, citing a 15-point peace plan delivered via Pakistan, and announced a 5-day pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. This triggered a sharp drop in oil prices: Brent -6% to $98.30, WTI -5% to $87.72. However, Iran denies any talks, calling them 'fake news,' and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard launched new missile attacks on Israel, Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, with a fire at Kuwait airport. This contradictory signal—diplomatic overtures versus ongoing attacks—creates high volatility for energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint; Iran informed the IMO it will allow 'non-hostile' ships to pass if they coordinate with Tehran, but reports suggest it may charge up to $2 million per passage, effectively a toll that could sustain elevated oil prices. Corporate developments are secondary but notable. Meta faces a $375 million civil penalty in New Mexico for misleading consumers about child safety on its platforms, a legal precedent that could affect regulatory scrutiny. Merck is nearing a $6bn biotech deal to boost its cancer pipeline, potentially positive for MRK. SpaceX is preparing an IPO filing as early as this week, aiming to raise up to $75 billion, which could impact sentiment toward space and tech sectors. In energy, Motor Oil (Greece) reported it has zeroed Iraqi crude supply due to Hormuz disruptions and secured alternatives until at least end-April, highlighting supply chain scrambling. Gold has recovered to $4,549/oz after a drop, with Goldman Sachs forecasting higher prices by year-end, supported by geopolitical uncertainty. Market sentiment is cautious, with Asian equities recovering on the Trump negotiation news but still wary of Hormuz clarity. The UK inflation data (CPI 3.0% y/y, PPI input 0.8% m/m) matched estimates, offering little new direction. Overall, the key signal is the fragile geopolitical détente attempt, which if credible could pressure oil and boost risk assets, but ongoing attacks and Hormuz tolls suggest sustained energy price risks.