WS #3809

The dominant signal in this 10-minute window is the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, with multiple high-impact developments that could significantly move energy markets and broader financial stability. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at Harvard University, indicated the central bank is carefully monitoring inflation expectations due to the war, suggesting potential monetary policy implications. Concurrently, Spain closed its airspace to U.S. flights participating in the war, a geopolitical escalation that could disrupt military logistics and heighten regional tensions. Oil prices remain elevated, with WTI crude at $103.2 (+3.58%) and Brent at $112.5, driven by ongoing supply concerns. Soybean oil surged 3.4% in Chicago as higher crude costs boost the biofuel sector, indicating spillover effects into agricultural commodities. The conflict is also impacting currency markets, with euro futures testing key support levels amid volatility. In corporate news, cybersecurity stocks are trading higher as the sector rebounds, with Wolfe Research upgrading CrowdStrike, potentially benefiting CRWD. Unity stock is rising on a strong Q1 forecast, while Applied Digital shares drop 23% due to debt concerns and Bitcoin weakness, affecting APLD. Shell plc announced a share buyback transaction, which could support SHEL. Analyst actions include Deutsche Bank lowering price targets for Hershey, General Mills, and Keurig Dr Pepper, while RBC Capital raised targets for Kinder Morgan and Enterprise Products Partners. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) removed prohibitions on financing market makers, a regulatory change that could impact Indian financial markets. Overall, the geopolitical risks are intensifying, with direct implications for energy prices, inflation, and sector-specific stocks.