WS #4182

The data dump reveals a significant escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with multiple corroborated reports of a second US aircraft (an A-10 Warthog) shot down near the Strait of Hormuz, following the earlier F-15 incident. Iranian naval forces have seized oil tankers in the Strait, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil supply, prompting warnings from the US and UK. This has directly driven US gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, with oil prices surging past $100/barrel. Concurrently, Amazon is imposing a 3.5% fuel surcharge on third-party sellers, indicating supply chain cost pressures. In corporate news, Lucid Group reported a plunge in Q1 deliveries due to supplier issues, though it reaffirmed its 2026 goal. Geopolitical tensions are further highlighted by Trump's national security team gathering at the White House and a proposed US defense budget increase to $1.5 trillion, offsetting some economic fears with fiscal stimulus but raising deficit concerns. The conflict's economic impact is being quantified, with Bank of Italy warning of zero GDP growth in 2026 if the war prolongs, and S&P affirming Romania's BBB- rating but with a negative outlook due to the conflict. No material de-escalation signals or countermeasures (e.g., IEA reserve releases) are present in this window, suggesting sustained pressure on energy and transport sectors.