WS #4198

The data dump reveals a significant escalation in the US-Iran conflict, with Iran claiming to have shot down a second US aircraft (an A-10) near the Strait of Hormuz, corroborated by Iranian media (Fars) and ANSA. This follows previous reports of an F-15 downing, marking continued aerial losses and heightening geopolitical risk. Concurrently, a Japanese LNG carrier successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz for the first time since the war began, signaling a potential, fragile opening for commercial shipping amid the blockade, which could slightly dampen oil supply fears. However, physical Brent crude prices have surged to $141.37, nearing $150, indicating severe on-the-ground supply shortages despite futures lagging. The IMF stated the Fed has little room to cut rates in 2026 due to inflationary pressures from oil and commodities, directly linking the conflict to monetary policy constraints. Domestically, Trump fired Attorney General Pam Bondi, with speculation over her replacement leaning toward figures like Harmeet Dhillon, indicating ongoing political volatility. These developments suggest escalating military tensions are driving oil prices higher, pressuring central banks, while minor shipping resumptions offer limited counters to supply disruptions.