WS #4655

The data window reveals a critical update on the Strait of Hormuz closure, with Reuters reporting ship traffic remains 'well below 10% of normal volumes,' corroborating earlier jetstream posts and confirming a severe, ongoing supply disruption. This concrete data point reinforces the bullish energy thesis, directly impacting oil prices and energy stocks. However, a significant counter-signal emerges: the EU's economic commissioner warns of stagflation risks in Europe due to the Iran war, with projections of a 0.4-0.6% GDP hit and 1-1.5% inflation spike if the conflict prolongs. This dampens the bullish energy narrative by highlighting broader macroeconomic damage that could weigh on global demand and risk sentiment. Simultaneously, SpaceX financials are detailed with $18.5B in revenue but a $5B loss in 2025, per The Information, a negative signal for high-burn tech and space sectors. In AI, Anthropic is exploring in-house AI chip design to reduce reliance on external suppliers, potentially bearish for semiconductor leaders like NVDA. Geopolitically, Trump's NATO threats and Iran's refusal to attend U.S. peace talks until a Lebanon ceasefire indicate escalating tensions, while a U.S. federal judge orders the Pentagon to restore journalist access, a minor positive for media freedom but with limited market impact. Other items, like routine central bank decisions or local news, are noise.