WS #4904

The dominant signal in this window is the CONTINUED ESCALATION of the US-Iran conflict, with oil prices surging past $103 (WTI +7% to $103.3, Brent +6.94% to $101.8 per oilprice.com 321689845), corroborated by multiple sources reporting Trump's move to blockade the Strait of Hormuz (oilprice.com 321689845, seekingalpha 321689839). This is directly impacting equity markets, with US stocks opening lower as optimism for a swift resolution fades after failed weekend talks (jetstream 321691364, 321691021). A significant counter-signal emerges from OPEC cutting its second-quarter global oil demand forecast amid the Iran war (jetstream 321690688), which could dampen the bullish oil price momentum by signaling reduced consumption expectations. In tech, a major development is CoreWeave landing a £21bn multi-year cloud deal with Meta (META) for AI infrastructure (jetstream 321690798), a high-significance positive for META's AI capabilities and cloud spending. This contrasts with broader market weakness, highlighting a MAG7-specific bullish signal. Additionally, Anthropic's explosive growth is highlighted by Axios stating 'no company in American history has ever grown like Anthropic' (jetstream 321690840), reinforcing the AI boom narrative though regulatory concerns from previous windows persist. Analyst actions show mixed sentiment: Stifel lowers price targets for Alphabet (GOOGL) to $387 and Amazon (AMZN) to $294 (pro-wire 321689959, 321690508), while Guggenheim raises Walmart's (WMT) target to $137 (pro-wire 321689754). Macro data shows US existing home sales missed expectations (-3.6% MoM vs prior +1.7%, 3.98M vs 4.07M est., pro-wire 321691025, 321690865), a bearish signal for housing and consumer sectors. The Federal Reserve is expected to take a cautious approach to winding down T-bill purchases (jetstream 321690930), indicating a dovish tilt that could support equities. Hungary's election winner Magyar signals a shift toward Euro adoption and stronger EU ties (jetstream 321690852, 321691529), a geopolitical development with potential implications for European stability and Russia relations.