WS #5251

The dominant signal in this window is the CONFIRMATION and IMMEDIATE MARKET IMPACT of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, with Iran declaring the strait 'completely open' for commercial traffic during the ceasefire, corroborated by multiple high-impact sources (jetstream, Al Jazeera, Bloomberg, Reuters, decrypt.crypto, investing.com, seekingalpha). This has triggered a sharp 10-14% plunge in crude oil prices (Brent below $90, jetstream, Alpaca), fueling a broad stock rally (Dow +700 points, S&P +0.72%, Nasdaq +0.71%) and a surge in Bitcoin above $77,000. However, significant counter-signals emerge: Macron and EU leaders warn against any privatization or pay-for-passage scheme (jetstream, GDELT), and a senior Iranian official states transit will be through 'designated safe lanes' with Revolutionary Guards coordination (jetstream). This dampens the bullish supply disruption reversal thesis, introducing friction that could limit oil's downside. Additionally, Russia's Novorossiysk port resumes crude loading (jetstream, Bloomberg), adding bearish pressure on energy. The EU acknowledges no systemic jet fuel shortage yet but warns of potential shortages within 6 weeks (GDELT, jetstream), bearish for airlines. Contradicting the tech rally, Netflix receives a price target cut (Barclays), while large options flows show institutional neutral positioning on SPX ($1.16B call) and earlier bearish puts on GOOG. Intel shares leap to dot-com era highs on turnaround optimism (jetstream), a bullish MAG7-contradicting signal. Autoliv posts upbeat Q1 results, jumping 8.4%.