WS #5257

The dominant signal in this data window is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz geopolitical risk, directly contradicting the previous 'stable reopening' narrative. A new Iranian official statement via Fars News Agency warns that if the U.S. naval blockade persists, Tehran will consider it a ceasefire violation and will close the Strait. This is corroborated by a separate Reuters-sourced US Navy advisory indicating the mine threat status is 'not fully understood' and avoidance should be considered. This represents a material de-escalation of the prior peace optimism, reintroducing a high risk of oil supply disruption. Concurrently, oil prices are reported to have 'tumbled over 10%' on earlier reopening news, and Bitcoin hit a two-month high on Middle East de-escalation hopes, creating a volatile setup for reversal. In corporate news, Eli Lilly's GLP-1 pill shows strong early demand (+2.65%), NVIDIA stock is climbing on Oppenheimer's bullish reaffirmation ahead of earnings, and PayPal gains amid activist investor speculation. A large $127M dark pool buy in TSM signals institutional accumulation in semiconductors. The Bank of England's Chief Economist warned rates may need to rise despite falling energy prices, a hawkish signal for global rates.