WS #5282

The primary signal is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, directly countering the previous de-escalation narrative. Iran has declared the strait 'completely open' to commercial shipping under the ceasefire framework, corroborated by multiple sources including Euronews, Italian media, and GDELT, with reports that oil tankers are beginning to test the waters. However, this is contradicted by a high-significance development: Iran's foreign ministry states that 60% enriched uranium will not be transported out of the nation, and a senior Iranian official tells Reuters that no agreement has been reached on nuclear issues in ongoing talks with the US. This is further corroborated by a Bloomberg report that Fed's Waller expresses caution about lowering rates, suggesting persistent inflation risks. The immediate oil supply shock has dissipated, but nuclear tensions and Fed hawkishness reintroduce uncertainty, potentially dampening the earlier market rally. In corporate news, Meta paid Broadcom $2.3B in 2025 due to CEO Hock Tan's board role, as Tan exits Meta board, a specific MAG7 signal with bearish implications for META. AI startup Cursor is in talks to raise $2B+ at a $50B valuation, signaling continued AI investment frenzy. NTT Data plans a massive AI data center near Tokyo, supporting tech infrastructure demand. The overall market narrative shifts from cautious optimism back to geopolitical and monetary policy uncertainty, with oil prices volatile and tech-specific developments surfacing.