WS #5314

The data dump reveals a significant de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, with Iran announcing the Strait of Hormuz is 'completely open' for commercial vessels, corroborated by multiple sources including Reuters and GDELT. This development, coupled with U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and a U.S. waiver for Russian oil trades, has led to a sharp plunge in oil prices (Brent down ~9%, WTI down ~11%) and a retreat in the U.S. dollar as safe-haven demand eases. This counters the previous bullish oil thesis from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, dampening inflationary pressures and supporting risk assets. Concurrently, Wall Street is pricing out war damage, with stocks hitting records, signaling a shift towards risk-on sentiment. In corporate news, Meta is reportedly planning mass layoffs affecting nearly 10% of its global workforce (~8,000 employees) starting May 20, as part of an AI-driven restructuring, which could pressure META stock and reflect broader tech sector efficiency trends. Additionally, the European Banking Authority warns that European banks face stress tests due to record geopolitical tensions, with cybersecurity risks from AI (notably Anthropic's Mythos model) emerging as a key concern, potentially affecting financial sector stability. Other signals include the EU seeking to reduce dependence on Middle Eastern jet fuel due to the Iran war, which could impact airlines and alternative energy sources, and India's gold import policy easing, which may affect gold prices and related sectors. However, these are secondary to the dominant macro narrative of Middle East de-escalation.