WS #5386

The primary signal in this window is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz crisis, directly contradicting the previous stable narrative. Iran has reversed its Friday decision to reopen the strait, fired on a tanker, and warned it will keep the waterway closed as long as the U.S. blockade continues. This has caused immediate market disruption, with multiple LNG tankers from Qatar making U-turns, confirming a renewed chokehold on ~20% of global LNG supplies and ~25% of seaborne oil trade. Oil and gas prices are poised for a sharp upward move on Monday's open. Concurrently, a secondary geopolitical signal emerges: North Korea launched multiple ballistic missiles toward the East Sea, triggering emergency meetings in South Korea and Japan. This adds regional tension but is unlikely to materially shift energy markets dominated by the Hormuz crisis. The U.S. blockade enforcement continues, with new imagery of San Diego-based warships (USS Pinkney, USS Canberra) patrolling. No counter-signals or peace deal announcements emerged to offset the crisis; the situation is escalating.