WS #5646

The primary new development in this window is a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz conflict, directly contradicting the previous de-escalation narrative. Iran has launched a major attack on a U.S. Navy vessel, the USS Carney, in the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by multiple sources including BBC, Guardian, and GDELT. This attack has resulted in casualties and damage, sharply increasing geopolitical risk and supply chain fears, countering the bullish energy/shipping signal from the previous window. The U.S. has responded with airstrikes on Iranian positions, further escalating tensions. This development is a high-significance bearish catalyst for global markets, likely impacting oil prices, shipping, and risk sentiment.