WS #5702

The dominant signal remains the U.S.-Iran naval conflict, which has escalated with new developments: the IRGC Navy seized the vessel MSC Epaminondas in the Strait of Hormuz, and the U.S. military intercepted at least three Iranian oil tankers in Asian waters. This reinforces the geopolitical risk premium, keeping oil prices elevated and supporting bullish energy sectors while pressuring airlines, shipping, and consumer sectors. Additionally, Indonesia's plan to impose transit fees on ships passing through the Strait of Malacca adds another layer of shipping cost pressure, potentially impacting global trade flows. In earnings, Texas Instruments (TXN) delivered a significant Q1 beat with EPS of $1.68 vs. $1.38 estimate and revenue of $4.83B vs. $4.53B estimate, signaling strong semiconductor recovery driven by industrial and data center demand. IBM (IBM) also beat estimates (EPS $1.91 vs. $1.81, revenue $15.92B vs. $15.67B) but disappointed with unchanged full-year guidance. Tesla (TSLA) reported adjusted EPS of $0.41 vs. $0.34 estimate and revenue of $22.39B vs. $22.19B estimate, with free cash flow turning positive at $1.44B vs. an expected negative, though delivery concerns persist. Southwest Airlines (LUV) missed Q1 results and issued weak Q2 guidance, citing higher fuel expense, directly linking to the oil price spike. Other notable signals include the White House preparing to loosen federal marijuana restrictions, which could boost cannabis stocks, and SpaceX in talks for Trump's Golden Dome project, though with limited immediate market impact. The Virginia redistricting ruling is a political development with low direct market implications. The data dump is otherwise dominated by routine SEC filings and non-actionable news.