WS #5752
The Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to dominate, with prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi) showing less than 50% probability of shipping normalizing by end of May, and only 59% by July. This is corroborated by multiple Bluesky posts and GDELT reports of Indian markets falling 1% as crude tops $100. The crisis is driving second-order effects: S&P Global surveys show the worst US inflation in almost 4 years, directly linked to the Hormuz disruption. On the corporate side, ServiceNow (NOW) fell 12-15% after-hours on weak guidance despite a Q1 beat, with management citing Middle East deal delays as a 75bps headwind to subscription growth. Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approved the $110B merger with Paramount Skydance (NPR, Guardian, Bluesky). Avis Budget (CAR) continues to see extreme volatility with another trading halt. NextEra Energy (NEE) beat earnings on renewables strength and AI-driven power demand. The BP AGM saw a triple climate rebellion with >50% of shareholders opposing plans to scrap climate reporting. Tether froze $344M in USDT tied to illicit activity following US law enforcement requests.
Key developments
- Prediction markets show <50% chance of Hormuz shipping normalizing by end of May, oil above $100
- ServiceNow falls 12-15% after-hours on weak guidance citing Middle East deal delays
- Warner Bros. Discovery shareholders approve $110B merger with Paramount Skydance
- BP faces triple climate rebellion at AGM; >50% vote against scrapping climate reporting
- NextEra Energy beats Q1 estimates on renewables and AI-driven power demand
- Tether freezes $344M USDT on Tron after US law enforcement requests
- US inflation picture worst in almost 4 years per S&P Global surveys