WS #5784

The dominant signal in this window remains the escalating Iran-Israel conflict, with multiple corroborating reports: Israeli military intercepts launches from Lebanon, IRGC Navy escorts vessels through the blockade, and Trump orders U.S. military to 'shoot and kill' Iranian small boats in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf countries deny further support to the U.S. against Iran. This is driving oil prices sharply higher and has broad market implications for energy, airlines, and defense. Separately, Intel's blockbuster Q1 earnings beat (Non-GAAP EPS $0.29 vs $0.01 estimate, revenue $13.58B vs $12.43B) and strong Q2 guidance continue to drive after-hours gains, with shares up 15%+. The Intel CFO mentioned semiconductor price hikes, some already reflected in Q1. Meta is reportedly laying off 8,000-10,000 employees (10% of staff) as part of an AI efficiency push. Microsoft is offering buyouts to 7% of its workforce to accelerate AI efforts. OpenAI released GPT-5.5. The White House is set to extend the Jones Act exemption for 90 days, which could ease some oil transport constraints. The Iran conflict escalation remains the highest-significance development, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade and potential for direct U.S.-Iran military engagement. The Intel earnings beat is a high-significance positive for the semiconductor sector and tech broadly, potentially offsetting some macro headwinds. The Jones Act waiver extension is a counter-signal that could dampen some oil price spikes by allowing foreign-flagged tankers to transport oil between U.S. ports.