WS #5850

The dominant signal in this window is the confirmation that the DOJ has dropped its criminal probe into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, clearing the path for Kevin Warsh's confirmation as the next Fed chair, which could signal a shift toward rate cuts and crypto-friendly regulation. This is corroborated by multiple sources (Al Jazeera, NYT via Bluesky). Separately, Japan announced it will begin releasing part of its oil reserves from May 1, a counter-signal to the oil supply crisis that could dampen bullish energy sentiment. The US and EU signed a partnership on securing critical minerals, reducing reliance on China, which could benefit domestic producers. Geopolitical tensions remain high with the US having three aircraft carriers in the Middle East for the first time since 2003, and PM Sanchez rebuffing the US idea of suspending Spain from NATO. In earnings, Halliburton reported strong Q1 results with operating income +57.8% YoY, and Newmont surged on Q1 earnings topper and record free cash flow. Google's investment in Anthropic (up to $40B) continues to be a theme, reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout thesis. Intel's blowout Q1 earnings and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hitting an all-time high suggest strong demand for CPUs in AI inference, positioning Intel as a potential next Nvidia. Tesla has started production of the Cybercab robotaxi, as confirmed by Elon Musk, which could boost TSLA sentiment. In crypto, the Ethereum Foundation sold nearly $24M of ETH to Tom Lee's Bitmine, a notable insider sale. The wildfire in Georgia destroying nearly 90 homes is a localized event with limited market impact.