WS #5886

The dominant signal in this window is the DOJ closing its criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, removing a key overhang for the Fed's independence and potentially clearing the path for rate cuts. This is corroborated by multiple sources (NYT, GDELT). On the geopolitical front, Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ghalibaf is reported to have been forced to resign by the Revolutionary Guard, and Iran states it has not decided to pursue negotiations with the US, contradicting earlier peace hopes. This escalates the Iran crisis and counters the prior narrative of potential peace talks. The US State Dept has ordered global warnings about alleged Chinese AI thefts by DeepSeek and others, escalating tech tensions. In corporate news, Meta is laying off 10,000 additional workers, while also expanding its AWS partnership to deploy tens of millions of Graviton cores, signaling cost-cutting and AI infrastructure investment. Intel hit a record high after strong earnings, and AMD reached an all-time high, reinforcing the AI trade. The EU approved a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. Consumer sentiment in the eurozone plunged to its lowest since end-2022, signaling economic weakness. Nvidia closed above $5 trillion market cap for the first time. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs, driven by tech and Iran peace hopes, but oil prices fell on signs of progress in Iran talks, though the Strait of Hormuz remains shut.