WS #5895

The data dump is dominated by the escalating Iran-US conflict and its severe impact on global energy markets. Gulf oil output is down 57% amid the conflict, with Goldman Sachs expecting a months-long recovery. The IEA warns of the biggest energy supply disruption in history, and Oxford Economics models a prolonged war pushing oil above $150/barrel, tipping the world into recession with 7.7% global inflation. The US has sanctioned a Chinese refinery (Hengli Petrochemical) and dozens of vessels for Iran oil trade, escalating pressure. Meanwhile, the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's IEEPA tariffs illegal, and a refund portal opens Monday, potentially impacting importers and trade policy. On the tech front, Apple's CEO transition (Tim Cook to John Ternus) is confirmed for September 1, with Cook becoming Executive Chairman. Tesla's robotaxis expanded to Dallas and Houston, though with very few active vehicles. Fed nominee Kevin Warsh's testimony signals potential aggressive balance sheet reduction, raising concerns on Wall Street about rising yields. The Bank of Canada and Fed are discussing risks from Anthropic's Mythos AI model, flagged as a financial stability risk. Overall, the energy crisis and its macroeconomic fallout dominate, with secondary effects on inflation, rates, and trade.