WS #5905

The data dump shows mixed signals. The US-Iran ceasefire narrative is challenged by a Bloomberg headline indicating the Strait of Hormuz remains near-empty with only Iranian ships moving, suggesting the blockade is still in effect. Additionally, Iranian officials show little interest in resuming talks, insisting on lifting the naval blockade first. This contradicts the previous de-escalation narrative and could keep oil prices elevated. Separately, a Bloomberg headline notes stocks are swinging on Trump posts, indicating market volatility driven by social media. The Mali militant advance into Bamako is a major geopolitical event but with limited direct market impact. Russian strikes in Ukraine continue, with a drone crashing in Romania, escalating NATO tensions. On the positive side, 82% of S&P 500 early reporters beat EPS estimates, supporting the earnings growth narrative. A Polymarket trade on Trump ending military operations against Iran by April 30th suggests some market expectation of de-escalation, but the Bloomberg and Iranian official statements counter that.