WS #5930

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating energy crisis due to the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Multiple high-credibility sources (IEA, TotalEnergies, Financial Times, GDELT) corroborate a severe supply disruption: 13 million barrels/day of oil and 100 billion cubic meters of gas are offline, with Brent crude above $105. IEA chief Fatih Birol calls it the 'greatest threat to energy security in history,' and TotalEnergies CEO warns of European fuel shortages within 2-3 months. This is a major escalation from the previous window's 'persistent tensions' narrative. The crisis is driving a 'BIIFS' (UK, Italy, France) sovereign debt risk narrative as bond yields spike. Counter-signal: IEA strategic reserve releases are underway, but insufficient to offset the scale of the disruption. Separately, GOOGL announced two new AI chips, intensifying competition with NVDA, and 82% of S&P 500 companies beat Q1 earnings estimates, providing a bullish undercurrent for tech. The Polymarket trade on a US soldier betting on Maduro's capture is a minor signal of insider trading risk in prediction markets, but not market-moving.