WS #5945

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of the Iran-US conflict, with Iran's military warning the US against renewed attacks and pledging to maintain control over the Strait of Hormuz. This is corroborated by multiple sources, including a GDELT article detailing the global oil shock from the Hormuz closure, now in its ninth week, with demand destruction spreading to petrochemicals and everyday markets. The situation is escalating, not de-escalating. A separate development is the Israeli military strikes on Lebanon and Gaza, with over 800 deaths in Gaza and 10,000 casualties in Lebanon since March, despite a ceasefire. This adds to regional instability. On the macro front, European airlines face a tough summer due to jet fuel supply disruptions from the Hormuz crisis, even if the war ends tomorrow, as Politico reports. Brazil is seeking measures to mitigate fuel price impacts. The US dollar gold card program is a fiasco, with only one visa issued. Bitcoin ETF inflows remain strong at $823 million weekly, but this is a continuation of an existing trend. No counter-signals to the dominant bearish oil/geopolitical thesis are present.