WS #5950

Geopolitical risk escalates further with Netanyahu ordering intensified attacks on Hezbollah, directly contradicting the newly extended ceasefire and signaling a breakdown in de-escalation efforts. This corroborates the previous window's theme of rising Middle East tensions and supports higher oil prices. Separately, a report of over 100 empty oil tankers repositioning to U.S. ports indicates buyers diversifying away from Middle East supply, which could partially offset supply disruption fears but also signals real demand shifts. The IEA's Birol comments that an Iran war would permanently cut future oil demand adds a long-term bearish demand narrative. On the macro front, G7 policymakers are expected to keep rates steady while watching energy costs for inflation, reinforcing a cautious Fed stance. China's silver imports surged 78% MoM to a record, signaling strong industrial demand and potential bullishness for silver. The Hungarian political risk of oligarch capital flight is a minor signal. Most other items are noise.