WS #6002

The highest-significance signal in this window is the escalation of the Iran crisis, with multiple sources corroborating that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, oil above $114, and Iran's nuclear negotiations collapsing. Trump stated Iran has 'about 3 days left before their oil infrastructure explodes' and pulled envoys from Pakistan after ceasefire talks fell apart. Iran is reportedly 'no longer interested' in a deal limiting its nuclear program, and its central bank confirmed toll revenue from Hormuz. This is a major escalation from the previous window's oil sanctions uncertainty. Separately, the suspect in the correspondents' dinner shooting called himself 'Friendly Federal Assassin' — this is noise, not market-moving. The Mali defense minister was killed in a rebel attack, but this is unlikely to move US markets. The Warsh confirmation remains ongoing and is carried forward as high significance.