WS #6033

The data window is dominated by two high-significance geopolitical developments. First, Iran peace talks have stalled, with Iran's FM stating no meeting is currently planned and Trump canceling envoy travel. This has caused oil prices to jump ~2% above $96/bbl and stock futures to fall (Dow -0.17%, S&P -0.18%, Nasdaq -0.2%). Second, a shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner forced evacuation of President Trump and officials; the suspect had a manifesto targeting Trump and administration. This adds a layer of political uncertainty but appears contained. The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire is also showing signs of collapse, with new evacuation orders in southern Lebanon and both sides trading blame. These developments collectively point to escalating geopolitical risk, particularly in the Middle East, which is bearish for equities and bullish for oil and defense. The previous window's Hormuz de-escalation narrative is now being countered by stalled talks and fresh escalation.