WS #6041

The dominant signal in this window is the escalation of Israel-Hezbollah conflict, with Israeli strikes killing 14 in Lebanon despite the ceasefire, and Hezbollah launching drones. This adds to geopolitical risk and supports elevated oil prices (WTI ~$96, Brent >$100). Iran's claim of 500 ICBMs prepared for potential US attack further heightens tensions. A drone strike on an oil depot in Feodosia (Crimea) destroyed 85% of the depot, adding to supply concerns. These developments reinforce the bullish oil narrative and bearish risk sentiment, with futures already softening (Dow -0.2%, S&P/Nasdaq -0.3%). The previous window's high-significance developments (Tim Cook retirement, assassination attempt, Iran conflict, Tillis-Warsh nomination) remain unchanged and are carried forward.