WS #6054

The Iran-US conflict remains the dominant market narrative, with oil prices rising again after Iran doubled down on the Strait of Hormuz closure. Brent crude rose 2.14% to $107.58 and WTI rose 2.08% to $96.36, driven by Iranian officials stating the Strait will 'under no circumstances' return to its previous state and accusing the US of undermining trust. Peace talks remain stalled after Trump canceled a planned envoy trip. This continues to benefit energy stocks while pressuring airlines and consumer sectors. Separately, Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 Brent forecast to $90, and Citi sees a bull case of $150 if Hormuz disruptions persist. The Bank of England is expected to war-game scenarios for a prolonged energy price shock, holding off on rate action. Additionally, a Ukrainian drone strike on the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery (4.6% of Russia's refining capacity) adds supply-side pressure to global oil markets. The previous high-significance development regarding the Iran conflict and oil price surge is carried forward as it remains unresolved and continues to drive market dynamics.