WS #6058

The dominant signal in this window is the continued escalation of geopolitical tensions following the assassination attempt on President Trump, which has directly impacted oil prices and diplomatic channels. Oil prices are surging: Brent above $107, WTI above $96, with a 1.76% rise in European gas prices to 45.65 euros/MWh. The US has cancelled envoy trips for Iran peace talks, and Iran's foreign minister Araghchi is meeting Putin in St. Petersburg, signaling a potential shift in diplomatic alignment. This is corroborated by multiple sources (La Rioja, ANSA, GDELT). Meanwhile, a separate development shows China warning the EU of retaliation if the 'Made in Europe' industrial plan proceeds, adding trade friction. The central bank 'super week' (Fed, ECB, BOJ, BOE, BOC) is approaching, with markets expecting rate holds but watching for inflation guidance amid oil price shocks. The Iran ceasefire proposal narrative is now de-escalating as diplomatic channels are disrupted. Additionally, the Kevin Warsh Fed nomination has cleared a key political hurdle, with Senator Tillis lifting his block, paving the way for a potential Fed leadership change. This is a high-significance carry-forward from previous awareness.