WS #6062

The dominant signal remains the ongoing Iran crisis and its impact on energy markets, with oil prices rallying over 2% to $108 Brent amid supply crunch and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This is corroborated by multiple sources: Seeking Alpha reports oil rally, GDELT mentions Brent at $108, and a shipping industry source notes a 95% drop in Hormuz transits. The crisis is driving gold demand (BayernLB reports Q1 surge) and silver imports (China record imports). A key new development is China blocking Meta's $2 billion acquisition of Manus AI on national security grounds, which could impact Meta's AI ambitions and signal increased regulatory scrutiny on cross-border AI deals. Additionally, Google is investing up to $40 billion in Anthropic, reinforcing the AI arms race. The ECB could hike in June if Hormuz reopens, per Goldman, indicating central bank sensitivity to energy-driven inflation. The ifo index fell sharply in Germany, reflecting economic drag from the crisis. Overall, the Iran situation is escalating, with no de-escalation signals, and the energy shock is broadening into economic weakness.