WS #6074

Multiple sources report that Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for ending the war with the US, a potential de-escalation that could lower oil prices and reduce geopolitical risk. However, US-Iran peace talks stalled over the weekend, with Brent crude up 2% to $108/barrel. The market is pricing a 56% probability of Trump announcing a blockade by May 31, down from previous levels. Separately, Microsoft and OpenAI have updated their deal, giving OpenAI more freedom while keeping Azure as the main partner and removing the AGI clause, which is positive for MSFT and OpenAI's commercial prospects. Apple defied the global smartphone slump by claiming the top global smartphone spot for the first time in a March quarter, driven by iPhone 17e success. China blocked Meta's acquisition of AI startup Manus, escalating US-China tech tensions. A large bearish SPX options trade (1,280 contracts at $7,000 strike, $59.2M premium) signals institutional hedging for downside. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this week, with the decision overshadowed by political drama around Powell's replacement. Energy stocks are up 1% while Nasdaq falls 0.56%.