WS #6129

The dominant signal in this window is the escalating US-Iran conflict stalemate, with multiple sources confirming President Trump rejected Iran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil prices elevated above $108/bbl. This is corroborated by Bessent's statement that Iran's oil production is collapsing, Iran's threats to respond to the US blockade, and reports of the first LNG tanker transiting Hormuz since the war began. The BOJ held rates at 0.75% in a split vote, sharply raising its inflation forecast to 2.8% due to oil prices, which is a hawkish signal for Japanese yields and the yen. OpenAI's revenue miss and CFO's concerns about paying for compute contracts are a negative signal for the AI trade, directly impacting sentiment on NVDA and other AI-exposed names. China blocked Meta's $2B acquisition of AI startup Manus, signaling tech decoupling. Nvidia hit a new all-time high, contradicting the broader AI slowdown narrative. The OpenAI-Microsoft partnership was renegotiated to allow multi-cloud access, a positive for MSFT but a negative for OpenAI's exclusivity value. Bitcoin is pressured near $77k ahead of Fed decision and oil-driven inflation fears. The Iran war narrative is ESCALATING as peace talks stall, with counter-signals limited to the first LNG tanker transit and China's mediation efforts.