WS #6133

The Iran conflict remains the dominant market driver, with oil prices surging to $111.48/barrel as diplomatic efforts stall. Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal, and German Chancellor Merz stated the US has 'no strategy' and is being 'humiliated' by Iran. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with the first LNG vessel since February exiting the chokepoint. BP reported a massive Q1 profit beat ($3.2B vs $1.38B YoY) driven by the Iran war, confirming the bullish energy thesis. The BOJ held rates at 0.75% with a 6-3 split vote, signaling a hawkish tilt and raising inflation forecasts to 2.8% for FY2026. Ueda's comments highlighted the difficulty of steering policy amid the crisis. In tech, China blocked Meta's acquisition of Manus, a $2B AI startup, citing national security. Google employees protested the company's AI deal with the Pentagon. The Fed, ECB, and BoE meetings this week are key, with markets pricing no change. The attempted assassination of Trump adds political uncertainty but is unlikely to materially shift markets near-term. Overall, the narrative is ESCALATING on geopolitical risk, with energy stocks benefiting and growth/multiple stocks under pressure from higher rates and inflation.