WS #6139

The dominant theme remains the Iran conflict, which is ESCALATING. Oil prices continue to climb, with Brent crude topping $111 per barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked for over eight weeks. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure in Tuapse continue, with a third attack in 12 days causing large fires. The Bank of Japan held rates at 0.75% in a split vote (6-3), with three members favoring a hike, signaling potential tightening amid rising inflation expectations due to higher oil prices. The BOJ raised its inflation outlook for fiscal 2026 to 2.8% from 1.9%. In corporate earnings, General Motors reported a massive Q1 beat (Adj. EPS $3.70 vs $2.62 estimate) and raised its FY26 adjusted EPS guidance, sending shares higher. UPS also beat estimates but reaffirmed unchanged full-year guidance, causing shares to track lower. Spotify shares fell after mixed Q1 results and weak Q2 sales guidance. OpenAI's growth headwinds are rippling through partners, with SoftBank and Oracle shares under pressure. The EU regulator proposed measures to Google for rival AI services on Android. Bitcoin ETFs snapped a nine-day inflow run with $263M in outflows as BTC slipped below $77K. Jack Dorsey's Block disclosed $2.2B in Bitcoin holdings. Israel approved its first regulated stablecoin, BILS, pegged to the shekel. The EU stripped immunity from four Polish MEPs. India's March industrial output rose 4.1% YoY, beating forecasts. Spain's jobless rate hit a one-year high of 10.83% in Q1. The trial between Elon Musk and Sam Altman over OpenAI's mission began. Meta quickly agreed to withdraw its $20B acquisition of Manus after China blocked it. Google signed an AI agreement with the Pentagon for classified work.