WS #6168

The dominant signal in this window is the UAE's formal exit from OPEC and OPEC+, effective May 1, confirmed by multiple sources including Reuters, Al Jazeera, and the Guardian. This is a political decision tied to the Iran war and Strait of Hormuz blockade, weakening OPEC's cohesion and potentially increasing long-term oil supply. However, the immediate market impact is muted because the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, limiting export capacity. Separately, the US Treasury's OFAC warned financial institutions against supporting Chinese 'teapot' refineries importing Iranian crude, escalating sanctions enforcement. US gasoline prices hit a 4-year high of $4.17/gallon. The OpenAI trial began with Elon Musk testifying, but no market-moving revelations emerged. China blocked Meta's $2B acquisition of AI startup Manus, citing national security. The narrative arc on the Iran conflict and oil shock is STABLE — no de-escalation, no new ceasefire progress. The UAE OPEC exit is a structural shift but not immediately price-moving due to the blockade.