WS #6179

The dominant signal in this window is the UAE's announcement that it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026. This is a high-significance geopolitical development that could reshape oil market dynamics. The UAE, capable of producing 5M bbls/day versus its current OPEC quota of ~3M bbls/day, will now be free to ramp up production, potentially adding supply to a market already tight due to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. This move is corroborated by multiple sources (WAM, Argus Media, CTV News, and various financial news outlets) and is seen as a blow to OPEC's cohesion. The development is bullish for oil supply expectations and bearish for oil prices in the medium term, but near-term oil prices remain elevated due to ongoing geopolitical risks. Separately, Starbucks (SBUX) reported a strong quarter, beating estimates and raising full-year guidance, with same-store sales growth of 6.2% and a raised EPS outlook, driving shares up ~5% after hours. This is a bullish signal for the consumer discretionary sector and for SBUX specifically. Booking Holdings (BKNG) lowered Q2 guidance, citing Middle East conflict impact through June, sending shares down ~4% after hours. This is a bearish signal for travel and leisure stocks. Robinhood (HOOD) missed Q1 estimates, with shares falling ~6% after hours, despite growth in users and assets. The macro narrative is stable, with the Fed expected to hold rates steady at tomorrow's meeting. Oil prices remain elevated due to the Iran conflict, with API reporting a larger-than-expected crude inventory draw of 1.79M barrels.